A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
