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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.